Global stock markets are rattled as the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is running his economy into the ground, raising contagion fear surrounding other European nations. Initially, crude oil was following the stock markets down, but then turned positive on a report from the normally more bearish leaning International Energy Agency, which is warning that as oil sanctions against Iran take effect, perhaps in combination with production problems elsewhere, maintaining global supply might be very challenging and would come at the expense of maintaining an adequate spare capacity cushion.
Even in long-term bull markets, you are going to have a day like Wednesday. Crude oil and products crashed down to major support as it was hit with a confluence of headlines and bearish weekly Energy Information Administration data. Fears of the impact of sanctions on China, Iran, Russia and Turkey did not help and another big drop in U.S. gasoline demand has some worried that U.S. consumers were showing resistance to higher pump prices.
While the market starts to come to grips with the new sanctions on Iran and a larger than expected crude draw, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API), what should concern them is that U.S. crude oil production is not quite what it was fracked up to be.
Global equity bulls were lingering in the vicinity during Tuesday’s trading session as investors diverted some attention from trade war concerns to focus on strong U.S corporate earnings. Asian stock markets have ventured higher following the robust earnings-led gains on Wall Street overnight.
Crude oil prices are on the rise as President Donald Trump warns the world that anyone trading with Iran will not be trading with the United States. That pronouncement is directed at the European Union, which issued a statement Monday in Brussels saying, "We deeply regret the re-imposition of sanctions by the U.S., due to the latter's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
There are no two ways about it: 2018 has been an absolutely brutal year for gold bulls. The yellow metal came into the year with some impressive momentum, rallying from around $1240 in mid-December to hit a peak above $1,360 per oz. by late January, but the proverbial “wheels have fallen off” since then.
After minor overnight volatility, U.S, European, Japanese and Hong Kong benchmarks are near unchanged but those from China are deeply in the red. The German DAX took a sweeping hit after a big miss on Factory Orders this morning but has regained positive; Euro weakness is supportive. In an editorial in its state-run newspaper to start the week, China directed sharp comments at President Trump, doubling up on calling him a bully and saying that it is in their best interest to sacrifice the short-term term economics for the larger and longer-term picture.
Snapback after a whack, give a dog a bone, this old man comes rolling home. It looked doomy and gloomy in crude oil for a while as trade war fears and reports of increases in OPEC and Russian oil production weighed on market psyche. Yet, after a report about another drop in supply in the Cushing, Okla., delivery point, and talk that U.S. oil production is not what it was reported to be, the mood quickly shifted.