Last Friday marked the first day of the Chinese Lunar New Year, also known as the Spring Festival, China’s most important holiday. The fire rooster struts off-stage, clearing the way for the loyal earth dog. According to CLSA’s tongue-in-cheek Feng Shui Index, healthcare, consumer and paper products are favored to outperform early this year, followed by internet, utilities and tech leading into the summer.
Around this time I always pay close attention to transportation and industrials. “Chunyun,” which translates to “Spring Festival Transportation,” is a 40-day travel season that’s known as the world’s largest human migration. This year, as many as 390 million Chinese travelers—more people than live in the U.S. and Canada combined—are forecast to put roads, highways, passenger trains and airlines through their paces as they visit families, go on vacation and travel abroad. Airlines alone are expected to serve 65 million passengers, a 10 percent increase from last year.
As the size of China’s middle class continues to surge and incomes rise, this upward trend in flight demand and overall consumer spending appears sustainable, creating some very attractive investment opportunities.
Below are five additional things I think investors should know about China and the surrounding region in the New Year.
China is a veritable wealth factory.
Speaking of disposable income: Last year, the China region added more new billionaires than the U.S. for the first time ever. UBS and PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) annual report on billionaires found that the total number of Asian billionaires rose to 637, followed by the U.S. (563) and Europe (342). China alone minted 67 new billionaires in 2017 and is now home to nearly 320.
Combine this with a surging middle class—already the largest in the world—and the consequences on consumption could be huge.
As I’ve shared with you before, China is still in the early stages transitioning from a manufacturing to a consumption and services-based economy. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), Chinese household income is projected to grow around 5 percent annually between now and 2027, elevating approximately 180 million people into the middle-income bracket. This will contribute to greater demand for everything from appliances to smartphones to automobiles to luxury goods.
Gold jewelry demand, for instance, grew 10.35 percent year-over-year in 2017. And it wasn’t just the super wealthy making purchases, the China Gold Association reported. Less affluent consumers also had an appetite, helping China maintain its ranking as the world’s largest buyer of gold for the fifth straight year.
Heavier spending is also showing up in Macau casinos, which saw revenues jump an incredible 36.4 percent year-over-year in January. This was the gaming territory’s 18th straight positive month and its largest such increase in nearly four years, suggesting Macau is well on its road to recovery after Chinese president Xi Jinping’s anticorruption crackdown.
This month, Macau welcomed its newest casino resort, the $3.4 billion MGM Cotai, increasing MGM’s gaming table count in the territory nearly 30 percent to 552, according to Reuters.